It is hard to say that there is a must-win game this early in the season, but it would be tough to climb out of an 0-2 hole with the the schedule we have for the rest of the season. On paper, the two teams seem to be heading in opposite directions. The Jaguars, favored by so many to win the AFC, displayed an uncharacteristically anemic ground game against the Titans last week. This may have a lot to do with the fact that both starting guards were lost to injury, a situation whose resolution will become a theme this season. With center Brad Meester on the sidelines already, the team will start three backup interior lineman against the Bills. The group faces the daunting task of stopping former Jaguar Marcus Stroud, who surely will be looking to wreak havoc against his former team while proving he still has something left in the tank.
The two teams met last year in Jacksonville in a game the Jags won 36-14. In reality, the spread should have been much greater as the Bills were dominated on both sides of the ball and Jacksonville failed to score touchdowns in the red zone, settling for five Josh Scobee field goals. The team that will be at JMS this Sunday will have a much different look. Besides Stroud, this Bills squad will feature Trent Edwards at quarterback, who looked very good last week against the Seahawks, rather than JP Losman, who started last season's game. Additionally, Jaguars fans will get their first look at running back Marshawn Lynch who was injured and did not play in the previous matchup.
I expect the Jaguars to run the ball much more successfully than last week playing in front of a home crowd, though this will of course depend on the performance of the new guards and whether the coaching staff remains committed the ground game. I look for Fred Taylor to have his first big game of the season, perhaps breaking off one or two big gains. The Bills bottled up Maurice Jones-Drew relatively well last season, and that could very well be the case again given their fast (but undersized) linebacking corps. The Bills lack a shutdown corner, so there may be opportunities for Garrard to stretch the field a bit more than last week.
Defensively, the Jaguars will be much more concerned with Lynch than Edwards, and may very well stack the front to challenge the quarterback's arm. The Bills do not have a great tight end, which could allow safeties Gerald Sensabaugh and Reggie Nelson to sneak up frequently to help out against the run.
I look for a fast start by the Jaguars, who will run frequently and use playaction to get down the field. The line will play well - and there is no reason they shouldn't, given Tutan Reyes' experience and the fact that Uche Nwaneri almost took Mo Williams' starting spot in camp anyway. If Stroud bottles up Taylor and Jones-Drew, it may slow Garrard's ability to find open spots downfield, as he tends to be at his best when he can use playaction to confuse defenses. Still, the attack should be fairly balanced and time of possession should be in our favor all game. Taylor will run for 115 yards and a touchdown, and Garrard will find Reggie Williams and Marcedes Lewis for scores in a comfortable home victory.
The Pick: Jaguars 27, Bills 13
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